what my intuition tells me now: payroll data indicate businesses playing betterPosted by Jason Apollo Voss on May 5, 2010 in Blog, Worst of the Blog | Comments Off
The month of April saw private sector jobs grow by 32,000 according to payroll giant ADP. Economists had expected a gain of only 20,000. What’s more, February to March employment data were revised to show an increase in employment of 19,000 from a decline of 23,000.
Analysis: This is the first rock-solid employment report in the two years that the recession was strangling jobs. We have both a revision upward of 42,000 jobs for February and March, and an April statistic that beat expectations by 60% (32,000 / 20,000 – 1). Prior to this report there was always something to question. Either the estimated growth in jobs was well within the statistical error or was accompanied by a downward revision to earlier data.
As I have been saying, the recession is over. I also said that the employment situation would be the last area of improvement in the economy. So for employment to finally be increasing is a very positive sign.
Importance grade: 10; I consider this to be the final affirmation that the U.S. has exited its recession. The first big sign of strength was the big increase in automobile purchases back in March. That was amazing and presaged the recession’s end in the minds of consumers. Now employers seem to agree. In the future, unless there are big surprises, I will discontinue reporting unemployment data.