what my intuition tells me now: up, up and away?Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on Nov 25, 2008 in Blog, Worst of the Blog | Comments Off
…the Holiday is fast approaching and I hope that all of you have wonderful plans to enjoy a breather.
Today marked the third day in a row that the financial markets closed up. More importantly, they closed up despite the fact that there was bad news from important companies. Bad news is no longer triggering panics and this is a good thing.
Recall from last month’s initial blog postings that I said we needed to see 3 big changes before you could gain confidence in the financial markets again? Well 2 of those 3 criteria have been met and the third criteria is well on its way to being met. We have new people in place at the regulatory, legislative, executive and corporate levels. We also have large changes underway in the regulatory, legislative, executive and corporate structures. The only thing that we are missing a full manifestation of is a slate of new ideas about how the economic framework should look from here on out. There has been a lot of discussion, but nothing certain has been made law or rule as of yet. This is coming and these new ideas will present themselves early next spring when the new President and Congress are in place to contemplate, evaluate, legislate, and execute.
So let me repeat what I said a couple of days ago: begin doing your research for where you want to invest. And let me say something new and unambiguously, the bottom of the financial markets has most likely been reached.
What could derail this prediction? If large investors, both institutions and individuals start getting spooked by what happens overseas in the economies of Europe, Japan, and China. All three of them stand on less stable and certain ground than the U.S. economy. There is going to be a lot of noise coming from these places in the next 6 months. So if your investment plans involved those three regions then sit tight. Ironically, relative weakness in those places will probably boost the financial markets in the United States as capital that has been sitting on the sidelines looks for new places to invest.
Happy Thanksgiving to everyone!