The Intuitive Investor was a Book of the Year finalist as named by the folks at ForeWord Reviews in the Business and Economics category! The book was chosen from amongst 350 publishers submitting 1400 entries. - 5-Star Amazon.com review by Philip Etienne (an alias), an experienced hedge fund manager: A Must Read For All Investors, Whether Brand-New Or Experienced. Let me just begin by saying that I have read many many books on investing and this is the first that has inspired me to write a review...Every now and then a book arrives that forever shifts the way we think about the world, potentially changing the way we analyze the accelerated influences that effect valuation. Taken to heart and put into practice, this is just such a rare piece of work. Timely and thought-provoking, The Intuitive Investor captivates the reader looking to improve his analytic process. I dont want to muddy Jason's writing and process by summarizing because it would not do justice to his overall message. That said, I have worked on Wall Street for almost 20 years and this book has blazed a new trail. It will help money managers of today and tomorrow better understand stock market dynamics through creative decision matrices. A huge improvement when compared to the dated valuation metrics/mean reversion models that were easily used by Buffett/Lynch/Vinick during the secular bull market...Voss has assembled a stunning wealth of new information and emerging ideas to help us visualize different and imaginative pathways to utilize right brain thought to capitalize on equity investing in the new market paradigm. He provides a concise and profound framework for making sense of the blizzard of catalysts that effect investment decisions on a daily, weekly, monthly and annual basis. Hyperbole aside, Voss has accomplished an extraordinary achievement. Simply put, read this! - 5-Star Amazon.com review by Patricia Aburdene, world renowned futurist: The Last Frontier. Intuitive Investing is the last frontier, the final skill set you need to invest with heart and head, knowledge and intuition -- that is, with both sides of your brain. Voss is a fine writer, a great teacher and an even better storyteller! You'll learn and have fun with this good read. Oh yeah, do you want to make money, too? Perfect. By the way, if you think this book is all about feeling and not about facts and figures, too, you're wrong. It's about mastering both. AND addressing investment's worst bugaboo: FEAR. After reading Intuitive Investing I found the courage to follow my intuition and press the buy button while the bears were growling away. I am very happy I did. - 5-Star Amazon.com review by Travis J. Ahlstrom, Junior Partner of Tri-Gen Investments, LLP: An original exploration of important yet under-emphasized aspects of successful investing. I finished The Intuitive Investor last week (at least the first read). There were many aspects of the book that I really enjoyed. Overall, I found the writing, reasoning and organization of the book to be exceptional and convincing. It was an inspiring journey, and a lot of the content has been on my mind on a daily basis since starting and finishing the book... The frameworks Jason Voss provides and the nuanced distinctions that he points out do a great job of outlining the material's application to the investment process. In addition, so much of the content is also relevant beyond investment decisions, for me namely intuition (fear vs. anxiety, truth, using the right brain) and meditation. So, there were many dimensions to the book's impact on me, and I look forward to exploring the content more fully.

what my intuition tells me now: Absolute Unemployment Numbers Show Carnage

 

While the rest of Wall Street digests the latest Department of Labor jobless claims figures (up by 10,000 to 424,000), I wanted to spend some time talking with you about absolute unemployment numbers.  All of the following data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report entitled, “Employment loss and the 2007-09 recession: an overview.”

Folks, get you air sickness bags, as there is going to be some turbulence.

From peak employment levels in January 2008 (138 million total people employed), the United States shed 8.8 million jobs by February 2010.  That represents a percentage loss of 6.4%!

Shockingly, and I do mean shockingly, unlike every other economic contraction dating back to World War II, the economy shed more jobs than were created in the preceding expansion!  From August 2003 to January 2008 the economy created 8,174,000 jobs.  But from January 2008 to February 2010 the economy lost all of those jobs and then some by losing 8,750,000 jobs!

On a percentage basis that is a 107.0% loss.  By comparison, there have been 10 recessions since September 1948, and the previous worst loss, in percentage terms was a 52.7% loss for the recession of April 1957 to June 1958.  Does this make sense?  In other words, how many of the jobs that are created while the economy is growing are then lost.  So, in percentage terms the Great Recession exceeded the previous worst job losses by more than double!

You might be thinking to yourself, “yeah, but what about on an absolute basis?”  Well that loss of 8.8 million jobs is 208.3% higher than the previous worst job losses experienced during the July 1981 to December 1982 recession!  So the Great Recession is the overwhelming champion of job annihilation.

So how has the economy’s job engine done since then?  Has it been running at full throttle, or is it sputtering?  In other words, how far out of the hole are we?

As of the beginning of May 2011 the U.S. economy has only created 1.7 million jobs since that stark moment of job loss trough of February 2010.  That represents a recovery of only 19.3%.  That’s another way of saying that 80.7% of people who lost their jobs still have not found new work.  Folks this is a very sad state of affairs.

By point of contrast, profits for the largest U.S. corporations, as measured by the S&P 500, grew:

  • 60.8% in 2009
  • 83.7% in 2010
  • 5.9% in 2011′s first quarter, according to the Department of Commerce

That first quarter 2011 expansion of 5.9% saw an absolute profit level of $1.7 trillion, and represents a whopping $193,182 per unemployed U.S. citizen!  Mind you folks, this is just one quarter’s worth of profits.  Total profits since the trough of the Great Recession are much, much higher than $1.7 trillion.  So there is plenty of money for U.S. businesses to be hiring workers.

No, it certainly isn’t their private capitalist obligation, as profit hungry businesses, to hire the unemployed.  But as a public moral obligation you would expect some sense of responsibility.  Wouldn’t you?  Similarly, at some point you would expect that there would be some alarm on the part of the general public, wouldn’t you?

Jason

[Note: this post has been edited for flow and typos.]



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