The Intuitive Investor was a Book of the Year finalist as named by the folks at ForeWord Reviews in the Business and Economics category! The book was chosen from amongst 350 publishers submitting 1400 entries. - 5-Star Amazon.com review by Philip Etienne (an alias), an experienced hedge fund manager: A Must Read For All Investors, Whether Brand-New Or Experienced. Let me just begin by saying that I have read many many books on investing and this is the first that has inspired me to write a review...Every now and then a book arrives that forever shifts the way we think about the world, potentially changing the way we analyze the accelerated influences that effect valuation. Taken to heart and put into practice, this is just such a rare piece of work. Timely and thought-provoking, The Intuitive Investor captivates the reader looking to improve his analytic process. I dont want to muddy Jason's writing and process by summarizing because it would not do justice to his overall message. That said, I have worked on Wall Street for almost 20 years and this book has blazed a new trail. It will help money managers of today and tomorrow better understand stock market dynamics through creative decision matrices. A huge improvement when compared to the dated valuation metrics/mean reversion models that were easily used by Buffett/Lynch/Vinick during the secular bull market...Voss has assembled a stunning wealth of new information and emerging ideas to help us visualize different and imaginative pathways to utilize right brain thought to capitalize on equity investing in the new market paradigm. He provides a concise and profound framework for making sense of the blizzard of catalysts that effect investment decisions on a daily, weekly, monthly and annual basis. Hyperbole aside, Voss has accomplished an extraordinary achievement. Simply put, read this! - 5-Star Amazon.com review by Patricia Aburdene, world renowned futurist: The Last Frontier. Intuitive Investing is the last frontier, the final skill set you need to invest with heart and head, knowledge and intuition -- that is, with both sides of your brain. Voss is a fine writer, a great teacher and an even better storyteller! You'll learn and have fun with this good read. Oh yeah, do you want to make money, too? Perfect. By the way, if you think this book is all about feeling and not about facts and figures, too, you're wrong. It's about mastering both. AND addressing investment's worst bugaboo: FEAR. After reading Intuitive Investing I found the courage to follow my intuition and press the buy button while the bears were growling away. I am very happy I did. - 5-Star Amazon.com review by Travis J. Ahlstrom, Junior Partner of Tri-Gen Investments, LLP: An original exploration of important yet under-emphasized aspects of successful investing. I finished The Intuitive Investor last week (at least the first read). There were many aspects of the book that I really enjoyed. Overall, I found the writing, reasoning and organization of the book to be exceptional and convincing. It was an inspiring journey, and a lot of the content has been on my mind on a daily basis since starting and finishing the book... The frameworks Jason Voss provides and the nuanced distinctions that he points out do a great job of outlining the material's application to the investment process. In addition, so much of the content is also relevant beyond investment decisions, for me namely intuition (fear vs. anxiety, truth, using the right brain) and meditation. So, there were many dimensions to the book's impact on me, and I look forward to exploring the content more fully.

what my intuition tells me now: waffling economic data

Posted by on Jun 30, 2009 in Blog | Comments Off





Good morning folks!

Today brings a couple of economic data points worth considering. First, is that the Standard & Poors Case-Shiller home price index fell very slightly in April. This marks the third consecutive month of a very slight decline. Second, Consumer Confidence fell in June to 49.3 from a revised 54.9 in May.

The Case-Shiller number is just not that useful because the data is so stale. What happened in April scarcely has any bearing on what is currently going on. This is because we are at a tipping point in the economic recovery. Things are either about to get better, or they are going to continue along at the bottom. We are in a tenuous transition time right now as the economy has not yet definitively emerged from recession, or gotten worse.

The Consumer Confidence number is troubling, but not surprising. I say ‘troubling’ because of the absolute dominance in Gross Domestic Product that consumer spending represents. Also, the number dipped below 50.0. Though it is not often discussed, a number above 50 represents belief that the economy will be growing, whereas a number below 50 represents belief that the economy will get worse. I also said that this number was not particularly surprising. Why? Because the stock market went sideways for much of June and U.S. consumers (wrongly) assume that as the stock market goes, the economy will go, too. Because so many of us grew up thinking that the Great Depression was “caused” by the stock market crash of 1929, we have come to associate the stock market as an economic weighing machine. Is there a correlation between the economy and the performance of the stock market? Yes. Is that correlation very meaningful? No. Fortunately during the second quarter consumers did spend more money and it is likely that second quarter results from businesses will be better than expected. Hopefully that will induce investors to sink more of their cash into the stock market. That will drive up share prices and consequently stock market levels. That will trigger to the U.S. consumer that things are getting better. Their confidence should rise…and a virtuous circle will hopefully be created.

Why the tentative language on my part? My general reading of the vibe of people is that they are a bit exhausted by the economy and the state of the world. A malaise seems to have descended. President Obama brought to office tremendous optimism that sparked a renewed hope in the public. However, as the honeymoon glow has worn off, folks are starting to get grumpy again. This is potentially very dangerous for the economy in the short-, to medium-term. So I am watching events very closely, especially with regard to my own investments. I will continue to provide updates when it seems appropriate. My hunch right now is that the dearth of news has led to a lot of investors hunkering down for the second quarter news onslaught. I am confident that the results will be positive and that they will drive the market upwards and the circle I described above will ensue.

For the benefit of your own news monitoring abilities, pay close attention to whether or not positive news leads to stock market rises. If it does not then we are in trouble because it means that consumer confidence in an economic recovery has been shattered and this whole thing could get bleak real fast.

Let’s be careful out there!

Jason

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  3. what my intuition tells me now: secret of long-term economic success
  4. what my intuition tells me now: what is real economic growth?


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